On December 3, the industry research organization Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) released the 2019 Global Lithium Ion Battery Pack Price Survey Report showing that the average global lithium ion battery pack price in 2019 was US$156/kWh, compared with US$1100/2010 The kWh dropped by 87%. Among them, the average price of lithium battery packs in the Chinese market has been as low as US$147/kWh, the lowest in the world.
The report said that the global lithium-ion battery pack price decline in 2019 was mainly due to the increase in sales of electric vehicles, the increase in battery orders and the rapid promotion and application of high energy density cathode materials. In addition, the introduction of new battery pack structural design and lower production costs are also driving the decline in battery prices in the short term.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s energy storage team has been tracking the trend of lithium-ion battery prices since 2010 and used the data to predict future price trends. Based on the collected data, the team calculated that the learning rate of the lithium-ion battery manufacturing industry is 18%, that is, whenever the cumulative production of lithium-ion batteries doubles, the price of lithium-ion batteries will drop by 18%.
It is predicted that the cumulative demand for lithium-ion batteries in the world will exceed 200 million kWh in 2024, and the price will fall below US$100/kWh. This price is considered to be the critical point for achieving parity between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles. In 2030, the global average price of lithium batteries may be as low as 61 US dollars / kWh, of course, there are many variables.
"The annual market size of the battery market will reach $116 billion in 2030, which does not include investment in the supply chain. But as the prices of batteries and battery packs continue to fall, buyers will be able to obtain higher value than they spend today with the same money. "Bloomberg New Energy Finance senior energy storage analyst and report author James Frith said.
At present, the reduction in the price of lithium-ion batteries will be mainly achieved by reducing production costs, introducing new designs of battery packs, and changing the supply chain. Logan Goldie-Scot, head of energy storage at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said: "Due to improvements in production equipment technology and the increase in energy density of positive electrode materials and batteries, battery manufacturing costs are also decreasing; expanding the production capacity of existing production equipment is also The company provides a low-cost way to expand production capacity."
For lithium-ion battery pack assembly companies, the introduction of a highly automated li-ion battery pack assembly line is an effective way to reduce costs.
For example, in the field of electric vehicles, major auto manufacturers have begun to build customized electric vehicle platforms, simplify battery pack design and promote the standardization of different electric models. The battery pack with simplified design is more convenient for production and can be applied to various types of vehicles in a larger scale. At the same time, the optimization of the battery pack design also helps to simplify the temperature control system and reduce the space required to place each pack. Since many car manufacturers began to purchase batteries for multiple platforms from multiple suppliers, this also puts forward higher requirements for the standardization of battery design.
In terms of profitability, the report mentions that the current composition of 100 kWh ternary 662 type batteries inSouth Koreais about US$125/kWh, of which the cost of the battery itself is US$88, and the rest are costs for components, R&D, logistics, taxation, etc. It's $22.
The report shows that after 2025, the importance of energy density of batteries and battery packs will become more prominent, which will determine the efficiency of materials and production capacity. Emerging technologies, such as silicon or lithium anode materials, solid-state batteries, and new cathode materials, will also be the key to reducing costs.
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